Risk analysis is the method of analyzing the dangers to individuals, businesses, and government agencies posed by potential natural and man-made hazards. Designed as a practical, in-the-field toolkit, this book details every aspect of how a risk assessment is performed, showing the proper tool to be used at various steps in the process, as well as locating the tool that best fits the risk assessment task at hand. With numerous industry-specific case studies, the book provides readers with complete examples of how each of the techniques can be used in a variety of real-world situations.
Risk Assessment: Tools, Techniques, and Their Applications
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xvii
Acknowledgments xxi
1 Introduction to Risk Assessment 1
1.1 Terminology, 6
1.2 Performing Risk Assessments, 6
1.3 Risk Assessment Team, 7
1.3.1 Team Approach, 7
1.3.2 Team Representatives, 10
References, 11
2 Risk Perception 13
2.1 Knowledge Level, 15
References, 20
3 Risks and Consequences 21
3.1 Introduction, 21
3.2 Risk and Consequence, 21
3.3 Credible Consequences, 24
3.4 Summary, 25
References, 25
4 Ecological Risk Assessment 26
4.1 Introduction, 26
4.2 Deep Water Horizon, 29
4.3 Love Canal, 34
4.4 Minimata Methylmercury, 36
4.5 Agent Orange, 38
4.6 Seveso, Italy, 40
4.7 Risk of Ecological Disasters, 41
4.8 Ecological Risk Assessment, 41
4.8.1 Example Ecological Risk Assessment, 45
4.9 Summary, 53
References, 54
5 Task Analysis Techniques 56
5.1 What is Task Analysis? 56
5.2 Why a Task Analysis? 57
5.3 When to use Task Analysis? 58
5.4 Task Analysis Process, 58
Step 1: Data Collection Information, 59
Step 2: Recording the Data, 60
Step 3: Data Analysis, 63
References, 63
6 Preliminary Hazards Analysis 64
6.1 Description, 65
6.1.1 Process of Preliminary Hazards Analysis, 66
6.1.2 Hazard Class, 69
6.1.3 Examples of Hazardous Energy Sources, 69
6.2 Using Process Hazard for Procedure Design, 72
6.2.1 Purpose of Process, 72
6.2.2 Initial Basic Procedure Steps, 72
6.2.3 Analysis, 73
6.2.4 Using the Results of the Analysis, 73
6.3 Using PHA for Preliminary Product Design, 75
Step 1: Determine Functions of the Crib, 76
Step 2: Determine Required/Critical Specifications, 76
Step 3: Determine Major Systems/Subsystems of the Crib, 76
Step 4: Determine Important Components of Each System/Subsystem, 77
Step 5: Determine Operating Modes of the Crib, 77
6.4 Summary, 79
References, 79
7 Primer on Probability and Statistics 81
7.1 Introduction, 81
7.2 Probability Theory, 85
7.3 Combining Probabilities, 87
7.4 Conditional Probability, 88
7.5 Probability Distributions, 89
7.6 Using Probability, 92
7.7 Summary, 95
References, 96
8 Developing Probabilities 97
8.1 Risk Assessment Data, 97
8.1.1 Introduction, 97
8.1.2 Hardware Failure Rate Data, 97
8.1.3 Manufacture, 98
8.1.4 Historical Data, 98
8.1.5 Government and Military Handbooks, 98
8.1.6 Commercial Data Sources, 98
8.1.7 Operational Data and Testing, 99
8.1.8 Failure Rate Calculations, 100
8.1.9 Accident Data, 103
8.1.10 Monte Carlo Simulation, 106
8.1.11 Human Error Probabilities, 107
8.1.12 Delphi Method, 108
8.1.13 Summary of the Delphi Process, 115
8.2 Overall Summary, 116
References, 116
9 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis 118
9.1 Introduction, 119
9.1.1 Description, 119
9.1.2 Why is a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Effective? 119
9.1.3 Types of Failure Mode and Effects Analyses, 120
9.1.4 Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Process, 120
9.2 Summary, 134
References, 134
10 Human Reliability Analyses 135
10.1 Introduction, 135
10.1.1 Purpose, 135
10.1.2 Background, 135
10.1.3 Bounding the System, 136
10.1.4 Summary Points, 139
10.2 Task Analysis, 139
10.2.1 Summary Points, 140
10.3 HRA Modeling, 141
10.3.1 Summary Points, 143
10.4 Quantifying Human Error Probability (HEP), 144
10.4.1 Summary Points, 148
10.5 Documentation, 148
10.5.1 Summary Points, 149
10.6 Use of Human Reliability Analysis Techniques for Analyzing Procedures, 149
10.6.1 Procedure, 149
10.6.2 Procedure with Inspection Steps, 151
References, 151
11 Critical Incident Technique 153
11.1 Introduction, 153
11.2 Method, 153
11.3 Building on the Results of a Critical Incident Technique Session, 157
Step 1: Ramp Agent observes Anomaly on Aircraft Cargo Door, 158
Step 2: Ramp Agent Discusses Damage with Supervisor, 160
Step 3: Ramp Agent Disc
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