Książki

Naturally triggered disasters are making the headlines in the news more and more frequently. Scarcely a month goes by without a major earthquake, a volcanic eruption or a huge flood, with dramatic footage of fallen buildings, billowing ash clouds and devastated victims on the evening news. Every few years some truly catastrophic event captivates both public attention and political opinion-recent examples include the Indian Ocean tsunami, Hurricanes Katrina, Sandy, and Harvey, the Pakistan floods, and the Wenchuan, Christchurch, and Tohoku earthquakes. News reports proclaim the numbers of people killed or injured or assets destroyed, but rarely illuminate the causes and consequences, or whether these losses could have been predicted, let alone avoided. The decade from 2000 to 2010 saw more than 1.1 million people killed in naturally triggered disasters, and more than 2.5 billion people affected. Hence, more than one out of three persons on Earth has had to deal with naturally triggered disasters in some way recently. Is it possible for this situation to be improved in the future?


In order to reduce future disaster impacts, developing a comprehensive understanding of natural hazards and the disasters they trigger requires us to go beyond matters of applied earth science to involve human societal, economic and political dimensions. This important work attempts to approach this multidisciplinary problem directly, based on the authors' experience of applying earth science to hazard and risk management in real-life situations. The book addresses potentially damaging hazard events as geomorphic processes, and how the threats these events pose to society can be communicated in the form of impacts and risks.


In this book, the authors go beyond the view that natural hazards and disasters have adverse implications for human assets by definition. They argue that understanding the forms and processes of Earth's surface-encapsulated in the science and practice of geomorphology-is essential in order to assess natural hazards and anticipate their impacts on Earth's surface, and hence on society; this anticipation holds the hope of prior adaptation to reduce disaster impacts. By approaching the problem from an applied geomorphological perspective, the authors shed some light on what can and cannot be achieved in the way of hazard mitigation and disaster impact reduction in a range of situations in the future.

Geomorphology and Natural Hazards - Understanding Landscape Change for Disaster Mitigation

Preface ix





Acknowledgements xiii





1 Natural Disasters and Sustainable Development in Dynamic Landscapes 1





1.1 Breaking News 1





1.2 Dealing with Future Disasters: Potentials and Problems 4





1.3 The Sustainable Society 5





1.4 Benefits from Natural Disasters 7





1.5 Summary 10





References 10





2 Defining Natural Hazards, Risks, and Disasters 13





2.1 Hazard Is Tied To Assets 13





2.1.1 Frequency and magnitude 14





2.1.2 Hazard cascades 16





2.2 Defining and Measuring Disaster 17





2.3 Trends in Natural Disasters 18





2.4 Hazard is Part of Risk 19





2.4.1 Vulnerability 19





2.4.2 Elements at risk 21





2.4.3 Risk aversion 23





2.4.4 Risk is a multidisciplinary expectation of loss 23





2.5 Risk Management and the Risk Cycle 24





2.6 Uncertainties and Reality Check 25





2.7 A Future of More Extreme Events? 26





2.8 Read More About Natural Hazards and Disasters 28





References 30





3 Natural Hazards and Disasters through The Geomorphic Lens 33





3.1 Drivers of Earth Surface Processes 34





3.1.1 Gravity, solids, and fluids 34





3.1.2 Motion mainly driven by gravity 36





3.1.3 Motion mainly driven by water 37





3.1.4 Motion mainly driven by ice 39





3.1.5 Motion driven mainly by air 40





3.2 Natural Hazards and Geomorphic Concepts 40





3.2.1 Landscapes are open, nonlinear systems 40





3.2.2 Landscapes adjust to maximise sediment transport 41





3.2.3 Tectonically active landscapes approach a dynamic equilibrium 43





3.2.4 Landforms develop toward asymptotes 44





3.2.5 Landforms record recent most effective events 46





3.2.6 Disturbances travel through landscapes 46





3.2.7 Scaling relationships inform natural hazards 48





References 48





4 Geomorphology Informs Natural Hazard Assessment 51





4.1 Geomorphology Can Reduce Impacts from Natural Disasters 51





4.2 Aims of Applied Geomorphology 53





4.3 The Geomorphic Footprints of Natural Disasters 54





4.4 Examples of Hazard Cascades 56





4.4.1 Megathrust earthquakes, Cascadia subduction zone 56





4.4.2 Postseismic river aggradation, southwest New Zealand 58





4.4.3 Explosive eruptions and their geomorphic aftermath, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile 59





4.4.4 Hotter droughts promote less stable landscapes, western United States 59





References 60





5 Tools for Predicting Natural Hazards 63





5.1 The Art of Prediction 63





5.2 Types of Models for Prediction 66





5.3 Empirical Models 67





5.3.1 Linking landforms and processes 68





5.3.2 Regression models 70





5.3.3 Classification models 72





5.4 Probabilistic Models 73





5.4.1 Probability expresses uncertainty 74





5.4.2 Probability is more than frequency 77





5.4.3 Extreme-value statistics 80





5.4.4 Stochastic processes 81





5.4.5 Hazard cascades, event trees, and network models 83





5.5 Prediction and Model Selection 84





5.6 Deterministic Models 85





5.6.1 Static models 85





5.6.2 Dynamic models 86





References 90





6 Earthquake Hazards 95





6.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Earthquakes 95





6.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Earthquakes 97





6.2.1 The seismic hazard cascade 97





6.2.2 Post-seismic and inter-seismic impacts 99





6.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Earthquakes 100





6.3.1 Offset landforms 101





6.3.2 Fault trenching 102





6.3.3 Coseismic deposits 104





6.3.4 Buildings and trees 107





References 107





7 Volcanic Hazards 111





7.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Volcanic Eruptions 111





7.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions 113





7.2.1 The volcanic hazard cascade 113





7.2.2 Geomorphic impacts during eruption 114





7.2.3 Impacts on the atmosphere 115





7.2.4 Geomorphic impacts following an eruption 116





7.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Volcanic Impacts 118





7.3.1 Effusive eruptions 118





7.3.2 Explosive eruptions 120





7.4 Climate-Driven Changes in Crustal Loads 124





References 125





8 Landslides and Slope Instability 131





8.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Landslides 131





8.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Landslides 134





8.2.1 Landslides in the hazard cascade 134





8.2.2 Landslides on glaciers 136





8.2.3 Submarine landslides 137





8.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Landslides 137





8.3.1 Landslide inventories 137





8.3.2 Reconstructing slope failures 138





8.4 Other Forms of Slope Instability: Soil Erosion and Land Subsidence 141





8.5 Climate Change and Landslides 143





References 146





9 Tsunami Hazards 151





9.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Tsunamis 151





9.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Tsunamis 153





9.2.1 Tsunamis in the hazard cascade 153





9.2.2 The role of coastal geomorphology 154





9.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Tsunamis 155





9.4 Future Tsunami Hazards 162





References 163





10 Storm Hazards 165





10.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Storms 165





10.1.1 Tropical storms 165





10.1.2 Extratropical storms 166





10.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Storms 167





10.2.1 The coastal storm-hazards cascade 167





10.2.2 The inland storm-hazard cascade 171





10.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Storms 172





10.3.1 Coastal settings 173





10.3.2 Inland settings 174





10.4 Naturally Oscillating Climate and Increasing Storminess 175





References 178





11 Flood Hazards 181





11.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Floods 182





11.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Floods 183





11.2.1 Floods in the hazard cascade 183





11.2.2 Natural dam-break floods 185





11.2.3 Channel avulsion 189





11.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Floods 190





11.4 Lessons from Prehistoric Megafloods 194





11.5 Measures of Catchment Denudation 196





11.6 The Future of Flood Hazards 198





References 200





12 Drought Hazards 205





12.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Droughts 205





12.1.1 Defining drought 206





12.1.2 Measuring drought 207





12.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Droughts 208





12.2.1 Droughts in the hazard cascade 208





12.2.2 Soil erosion, dust storms, and dune building 208





12.2.3 Surface runoff and rivers 210





12.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Drought Impacts 211





12.4 Towards More Megadroughts? 215





References 216





13 Wildfires 219





13.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Wildfires 219





13.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Wildfires 221





13.2.1 Wildfires in the hazard cascade 221





13.2.2 Direct fire impacts 221





13.2.3 Indirect and post-fire impacts 222





13.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Wildfires 225





13.4 Towards More Megafires? 227





References 228





14 Snow and Ice Hazards 231





14.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Snow and Ice Hazards 231





14.2 Geomorphic Impact of Snow and Ice Hazards 232





14.2.1 Snow and ice in the hazard cascade 232





14.2.2 Snow and ice avalanches 233





14.2.3 Jokulhlaups 236





14.2.4 Degrading permafrost 237





14.2.5 Other ice hazards 239





14.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Snow and Ice Processes 240





14.4 Atmospheric Warming and Cryospheric Hazards 241





References 243





15 Sea-Level Change and Coastal Hazards 247





15.1 Frequency and Magnitude of Sea-Level Change 248





15.2 Geomorphic Impacts of Sea-Level Change 250





15.2.1 Sea levels in the hazard cascade 250





15.2.2 Sedimentary coasts 251





15.2.3 Rocky coasts 253





15.3 Geomorphic Tools for Reconstructing Past Sea Levels 254





15.4 A Future of Rising Sea Levels 257





References 259





16 How Natural are Natural Hazards? 263





16.1 Enter the Anthropocene 263





16.2 Agriculture, Geomorphology, and Natural Hazards 266





16.3 Engineered Rivers 270





16.4 Engineered Coasts 272





16.5 Anthropogenic Sediments 274





16.6 The Urban Turn 277





16.7 Infrastructure's Impacts on Landscapes 278





16.8 Humans and Atmospheric Warming 279





16.9 How Natural Are Natural Hazards and Disasters? 281





References 283





17 Feedbacks with the Biosphere 287





17.1 The Carbon Footprint of Natural Disasters 287





17.1.1 Erosion and intermittent burial 289





17.1.2 Organic carbon in river catchments 291





17.1.3 Climatic disturbances 293





17.2 Protective Functions 296





17.2.1 Forest ecosystems 296





17.2.2 Coastal ecosystems 299





References 303





18 The Scope of Geomorphology in Dealing with Natural Risks and Disasters 309





18.1 Motivation 310





18.2 The Geomorphologist's Role 312





18.3 The Disaster Risk Management Process 313





18.3.1 Identify stakeholders 313





18.3.2 Know and share responsibilities 314





18.3.3 Understand that risk changes 315





18.3.4 Analyse risk 316





18.3.5 Communicate and deal with risk aversion 317





18.3.6 Evaluate risks 319





18.3.7 Share decision making 321





18.4 The Future-Beyond Risk? 322





18.4.1 Limitations of the risk approach 323





18.4.2 Local and regional disaster impact reduction 323





18.4.3 Relocation of assets 325





18.4.4 A way forward? 325





References 327





19 Conclusions 329





19.1 Natural Disasters Have Immediate and Protracted Geomorphic Consequences 329





19.2 Natural Disasters Motivate Predictive Geomorphology 329





19.3 Natural Disasters Disturb Sediment Fluxes 330





19.4 Geomorphology of Anthropocenic Disasters 331





References 332





20 Glossary 333