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In financially constrained health systems across the world, increasing emphasis is being placed on the ability to demonstrate that health care interventions are not only effective, but also cost-effective. This book deals with decision modelling techniques that can be used to estimate the value for money of various interventions including medical devices, surgical procedures, diagnostic technologies, and pharmaceuticals. Particular emphasis is placed on the
importance of the appropriate representation of uncertainty in the evaluative process and the implication this uncertainty has for decision making and the need for future research.

This highly practical guide takes the reader through the key principles and approaches of modelling techniques. It begins with the basics of constructing different forms of the model, the population of the model with input parameter estimates, analysis of the results, and progression to the holistic view of models as a valuable tool for informing future research exercises. Case studies and exercises are supported with online templates and solutions.

This book will help analysts understand the contribution of decision-analytic modelling to the evaluation of health care programmes.

ABOUT THE SERIES: Economic evaluation of health interventions is a growing specialist field, and this series of practical handbooks will tackle, in-depth, topics superficially addressed in more general health economics books. Each volume will include illustrative material, case histories and worked examples to encourage the reader to apply the methods discussed, with supporting material provided online. This series is aimed at health economists in academia, the pharmaceutical industry and the
health sector, those on advanced health economics courses, and health researchers in associated fields. An advanced, practical guide to the use of probabilistic decision modelling techniques, written by authors at the forfront of developments in this field... Given that NICE recommend the use of probabilistic methods, this book is undoubtedly a welcome handbook for health technology analysts requiring technical details on decision-analytic modelling. * International Journal of Epidemiology, *

Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation

1. Introduction ; 2. Key aspects of decision modelling for economic evaluation ; 3. Further developments in decision analytic models for economic evaluation ; 4. Making decision models probabilistic ; 5. Analysing and presenting simulation output from probabilistic models ; 6. Decision-making, uncertainty and the value of information ; 7. Efficient research design ; 8. Future challenges for cost-effectiveness modelling of health care interventions