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This thesis proposes an impact-based combined drought index (CDI) and a regression prediction model of crop yield anomalies for the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia. It shows to be effective in indicating historic drought events in the Upper Blue Nile, and could potentially be used in the future development of drought monitoring.

Developing an Impact-Based Combined Drought Index for Monitoring Crop Yield Anomalies in the Upper B

1. Introduction

1.1 Background

1.2 Drought monitoring

1.3 Problem statement

1.4 Research objectives

1.5 Main steps in research methodology

1.6 Research significance and innovation

1.7 Description of the study area

1.8 Dissertation structure





2. Spatio-temporal assessment of meteorological drought under the influence of varying record length

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Stations selection and data analysis

2.3 Selection of the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) for the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

2.4 Methodology of experiments

2.5 Results and discussion

2.6 Conclusion





3. Comparison of the performance of six drought indices in assessing and characterising historic drought events

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Data

3.3 Drought indicators

3.4 Methods

3.5 Results and discussion

3.6 Conclusion





4. Developing a combined drought index and prediction model to monitor drought-related crop yield reduction

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Data

4.3 Methods

4.4 Results and discussion

4.5 Conclusions





5. Application of Earth observation data for developing a combined drought index and crop yield prediction model

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Data

5.3 Methods

5.4 Results and discussion

5.5 Prediction models of crop yield anomalies

5.6 Conclusions





6. Summary, conclusions and recommendations

6.1 Summary

6.2 Conclusions

6.3 Recommendations





References





Appendix A: Gamma distribution based SPI calculation

Appendix B: Time series of drought indices

Appendix C: Spider web plots of drought indicator results for selected stations

Appendix D: Scatter plots of drought indices versus crop yield anomalies

Appendix E: The regression equations developed for the selected eight zones and for the four crops