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The Third Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis by Randolph H. Pherson and Richards J. Heuer Jr showcases sixty-six structured analytic techniques-nine new to this edition-that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. With more depth, detail, and utility than existing handbooks, each technique is clearly and systematically explained. Logically organized and richly illustrated, and with spiral binding and tabs that separate techniques into categories, this book is an easy-to-use, comprehensive reference. "This is one of the rare textbooks extant that succeed brilliantly in solving the basic dilemma of every textbook: to be accessible to the novice and at the same time exact in the details. It does so by following the identical text structure for each of the techniques it discusses. As a consequence, it is at the same time a textbook and a work of reference." -- Christian Daye "An accessible explanation of structured analytic techniques that will help students, academics and intelligence analysts to produce better research." -- Dr. Antony Field "Structured Analytical Techniques by Heuer and Pherson provides students with a comprehensive understanding of the analytical tools used by intelligence professionals, in order to overcome cognitive biases and learn to solve problems collaboratively." -- Richard J. Kilroy, Jr. "Heuer and Pherson's Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis is a comprehensive and accessibly written text that will be of interest to both novices and professionals alike. Its comprehensive coverage of analytical techniques, and the analytical process, make this work an essential reading for students of intelligence analysis." -- Christopher K. Lamont "Excellent publication for the study of intelligence analysis, structured analytical techniques and their application in this increasingly dangerous environment. A must read for anyone entering the intelligence community as an analyst, practitioner, stakeholder and leader." -- Charles E. Wilson

Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis

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Foreword by John McLaughlin

Preface

Chapter 1 * Introduction and Overview

1.1 Our Vision

1.2 Role of Structured Analytic Techniques

1.3 History of Structured Analytic Techniques

1.4 The Expanding Use of Structured Analytic Techniques

1.5 Selection of Techniques for This Book

1.6 Quick Overview of Chapters

Chapter 2 * The Role of Structured Techniques

2.1 Two Types of Thinking

2.2 Developing a Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques

2.3 Dealing with Cognitive Limitations

2.4 Matching Cognitive Limitations to Structured Techniques

2.5 Combating Digital Disinformation

Chapter 3 * Choosing the Right Technique

3.1 The Six Families

3.2 Core Techniques

3.3 Selecting the Right Technique

3.4 Projects Using Multiple Techniques

3.5 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques

3.6 Making a Habit of Using Structured Techniques

Chapter 4 * Practitioner's Guide to Collaboration

4.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams

4.2 Dividing the Work

4.3 Value of Collaborative Processes

4.4 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups

4.5 Benefiting from Diversity

4.6 Advocacy versus Objective Inquiry

4.7 Leadership and Training

Chapter 5 * Getting Organized

5.1 Sorting

5.2 Ranking, Scoring, and Prioritizing

5.3 Matrices

5.4 Process Maps

5.5 Gantt Charts

Chapter 6 * Exploration Techniques

6.1 Simple Brainstorming

6.2 Cluster Brainstorming

6.3 Nominal Group Technique

6.4 Circleboarding (TM)

6.5 Starbursting

6.6 Mind Maps and Concept Maps

6.7 Venn Analysis

6.8 Network Analysis

Chapter 7 * Diagnostic Techniques

7.1 Key Assumptions Check

7.2 Chronologies and Timelines

7.3 Cross-Impact Matrix

7.4 Multiple Hypothesis Generation

7.5 Diagnostic Reasoning

7.6 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

7.7 Inconsistencies Finder (TM)

7.8 Deception Detection

7.9 Argument Mapping

Chapter 8 * Reframing Techniques

8.1 Cause and Effect Techniques

8.2 Challenge Analysis Techniques

8.3 Conflict Management Techniques

Chapter 9 * Foresight Techniques

9.1 Key Drivers Generation (TM)

9.2 Key Uncertainties Finder (TM)

9.3 Reversing Assumptions

9.4 Simple Scenarios

9.5 Cone of Plausibility

9.6 Alternative Futures Analysis

9.7 Multiple Scenarios Generation

9.8 Morphological Analysis

9.9 Counterfactual Reasoning

9.10 Analysis by Contrasting Narratives

9.11 Indicators Generation, Validation, and Evaluation

Chapter 10 * Decision Support Techniques

10.1 Opportunities Incubator (TM)

10.2 Bowtie Analysis

10.3 Impact Matrix

10.4 SWOT Analysis

10.5 Critical Path Analysis

10.6 Decision Trees

10.7 Decision Matrix

10.8 Force Field Analysis

10.9 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

10.10 Complexity Manager

Chapter 11 * The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques

11.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis

11.2 Purpose of Structured Techniques

11.3 Projecting the Trajectory of Structured Techniques

11.4 Role of Structured Techniques in 2030