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This book investigates the spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions, using the basic reproduction rate (R0) to model the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The authors mapped areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria in the federal state of Lower Saxony (pre-study) and for whole Germany (main-study) by means of geostatistics for past (1947-2007) and future periods. Projections based on predicted monthly mean air temperature data derived from the IPCC and regionally discriminated by two regional climate models (REMO, WettReg) for the countrywide study.

Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures

1. Background and Goals

2. Case Study 1: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Lower Saxony

3. Case Study 2: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Germany

4. Conclusions and Outlook